by Mark Edwards and Cheryl Yu (originally published on University World News)
Broadly speaking, the development of UK universities can be divided into four distinct epochs, the most recent of which is still evolving. Between the 11th and 16th centuries, the United Kingdom witnessed the emergence of the university, with the Oxbridge institutions established to serve the British elite.
Oxford and Cambridge, the two oldest universities in the English-speaking world, led the UK’s higher education offering in isolation until the 15th and 16th centuries, which saw the creation of the Scottish powerhouses: St Andrews, Glasgow, Aberdeen, and later, Edinburgh.
The second epoch came in the 19th century, marked by a dramatic expansion in UK university provision, ending the Oxbridge dominance in England and introducing challengers to the Scottish institutions.
Most major UK cities saw the birth of the ‘red brick’ university between 1820 and 1900, including London, Liverpool, Manchester, Durham, Birmingham, Belfast (the first Northern Irish university) and Aberystwyth (then University College Wales, the first Welsh university).
An insightful discussion of the cultural and philosophical underpinnings of ‘red bricks’ appears in Matthaios Dimitriou’s 2003 study of 19th-century UK universities. Key drivers included the rise of secularism, the need to develop a workforce for industrial and urban demands and the growing democratisation of education.
The third wave of development occurred in the post-war period, particularly between the 1960s and early 2000s. This saw the rise of the ‘new’ universities – former polytechnic colleges and institutions designed to address vocational and professional training needs.
Between the late 1960s and 1992, these polytechnics were formally distinct from universities. The Further and Higher Education Act of 1992 allowed them to gain university status, leading to a wave of new institutions such as the University of Brighton, Coventry University, Sheffield Hallam and Oxford Brookes. Some ‘post-1992’ universities, however, did not originate as polytechnics.
The fourth and ongoing period began around the turn of the millennium, shaped by market-driven dynamics focusing on employability, student satisfaction and league table performance.
This phase has had to adapt to globalisation, rapid technological advancement (notably the internet, social media and AI) and increasing internationalisation of students, staff, research and competition.
The post-2000 period has seen dramatic growth in academic offerings, student numbers and tuition fees. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic forced a rapid pivot to online teaching and remote working, accelerating pre-existing trends.
Beyond technology and demographics, universities have become more politicised and are often criticised in the media, online discourse and by political actors.
In summary, the first quarter of the 21st century has been turbulent for UK universities. Institutional operations, business focus, student demographics and funding models have all shifted.
The local context is no longer dominant, as universities increasingly look to the international market for both expansion and survival. Just as COVID-19 hastened the adoption of digital education, recent anti-immigration policies, rising study costs and the growing quality of overseas competitors have accelerated interest in transnational education (TNE). Many institutions now rely heavily on international students, creating a funding gap that TNE may help fill.
The age of transnational education?
While TNE is not new, the scale and pace of new partnerships is unprecedented. Higher Education Statistics Agency data shows that from 2007-08 to 2022-23, the number of students enrolled through UK TNE provision overseas rose from 196,740 to 571,630 – a near threefold increase.
This number likely grew further between 2023 and 2025 due to the decline in international students coming to the UK. This raises important ‘what if’ questions: What if TNE partnerships continue to expand?
On the positive side, expanding TNE can generate significant income for universities if it is done successfully at scale. It offers opportunities for enhancing institutional and national reputation, fulfilling social responsibilities and deepening international teaching and research collaborations.
UK-based students and staff benefit through COIL (Collaborative Online International Learning) programmes (and similar) and closer ties between UK and overseas campuses. Successful TNE ventures can bolster the UK’s global reputation in research, innovation and education, while supporting soft power and diplomatic relations.
With sustained growth, UK universities could evolve into truly global entities, headquartered in the UK but operating like multinational corporations.
This could lead to increased research income, higher-quality outputs and greater investment in infrastructure, staff and skills. Some institutions, like Middlesex and Strathclyde, are already better known for their international efforts than their domestic campuses.
At the recent International Higher Education Forum conference at the University of Birmingham, Coventry University projected that, within the next few years, its number of TNE students is expected to match the student population on its UK campuses.
TNE is currently dominated by UK, Australian and US universities. The increased expansion of UK and other Anglophone universities’ TNE operations could adversely impact the prevalence and exposure to culturally- and-or country-specific higher education provision and perpetuate the unequal power dynamics of global higher education.
However, growth in exports is likely to be matched by imports, including the clauses of the recent ‘UK-India 2035 Vision’ and the overall rise of Asia.
The entry of high-quality or niche foreign institutions into the UK could worsen recruitment challenges for existing UK providers. In addition, any restrictive government interventions may provoke reciprocal actions, leading to complex diplomatic and regulatory consequences.
What if TNE partnerships begin to fail?
TNE ventures require major investments of time, money and staff effort, which can divert attention from core activities. There are examples of failed UK TNE initiatives that have resulted in reputational and financial losses.
So far, such failures haven’t been existential, but as institutions face domestic cuts while pursuing aggressive TNE expansion, the stakes are rising. American universities were involved in setting up international branch campuses (IBCs) in South Korea, close to the biggest international market of China, but they never actually attracted Chinese students to TNE in South Korea and never delivered the scale of students they planned.
Failures abroad can damage both the institution and the UK’s broader reputation. The image of abandoned campuses, legal disputes, rusting signs and job losses is a scenario to avoid. Uncoordinated expansion also risks market oversaturation.
Unlike the UK, many regions do not have sufficient student demand or economic resilience to support multiple institutions offering similar programmes. A pandemic, conflict or other crisis could rapidly undermine local demand, turning overseas ventures into liabilities.
The fifth epoch?
As UK universities continue to grapple with a shifting global landscape, we may be witnessing the emergence of a fifth epoch – one defined not just by the integration of global technologies, student mobility or policy fluctuations, but by the full-scale internationalisation of the UK higher education model itself.
This phase could see UK institutions functioning less as national universities with overseas ambitions and more as transnational knowledge enterprises, seamlessly embedded across borders.
However, the success of this evolution will not hinge on scale alone. What will matter most is the sector’s ability to uphold its longstanding values of academic excellence, institutional integrity and student-centred learning across all delivery modes and geographies.
The temptation to pursue rapid expansion must be tempered with thoughtful governance, equitable partnerships, rigorous quality assurance and a commitment to local relevance.
If the fourth epoch brought marketisation and metrics, the fifth must bring reflection, responsibility and renewal. TNE holds the promise of a more inclusive, globally connected future, but only if pursued with the same care and ambition that defined earlier milestones in the UK’s university story. In shaping this next chapter, universities must ask themselves not only ‘what if’, but also, more importantly, ‘what ought’.
The original publication: https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20250819104002704